12/22 Financial Skeptic

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Palm Balance Sheet Quicksand
December 21, 2009 at 12:36 pm

Palm (PALM) reported quarterly results and wants investors to remain enthusiastic. Sequentially shipments dropped by 5%. At this point investors know all they need to know. If a compelling product comes to market sales do not drop 5%.

But just to be complete here are a few other things that keep investors awake at night.

1. The current cash position is equal to one third of market capitalization.
2. Accounts receivable are up but revenues have dropped by two thirds
3. Payables are up by some 70%
4. Something called Series C Derivatives has appeared as a current liability to the tune of approximately $179 million.
5. Long term debt is undented but equal to the cash position of the company.
 

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12/22 FIRE Finance

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Americans Living Without Bank Accounts?
December 21, 2009 at 12:21 am


Click on the image for a better view [1]

[This post is written and copyrighted by FIRE Finance (http://firefinance.blogspot.com).]

Last weekend we were wondering how many Americans live without bank accounts. Our first thought was not many. Curious to know the facts we started researching on the web. We were stunned to find that 17 million Americans have no bank accounts! And 18% of the rest of the population that do have bank accounts use non-traditional banking services like pawn shops and payday lenders [1]. These are just a few of the findings of a new government (FDIC) survey on Americans' access to basic banking services. This survey tallied responses from roughly 54,000 U.S. households.

Taken together, at least 25.6 percent of U.S. households, close to 30 million, are either unbanked or underbanked. Approximately 60 million adults reside in these households.


According to the study, the most common reason cited for being unbanked was a lack of funds. More than a third of those considered "unbanked" said they did not have enough cash to warrant having a bank account. Another point that emerged from the survey, was that many Americans that actually have bank accounts still looked elsewhere to cash their checks, borrow money and used prepaid debit cards for their money transactions.

Nearly 18% of all U.S. households have relied on pawn shops, payday lenders or check-cashing outlets at least once in the past five years. That is quite a huge figure considering the fact that these type of businesses are often criticized for charging humongous consumers rates. For example, in some cases, borrowers pay the equivalent of an annualized interest rate as high as 500%!

But certain money transactions make sense to people who are unbanked primarily due to paucity of funds for maintaining a minimum balance at a bank. Here is a real life story of a person named Al Walker, a graduate of American University (2006), who uses non-traditional banking methods (despite FDIC warnings) to cash his check without a bank account, payday loans and the likes:
I don't have to worry about them posting anything to my account. I don't have to worry about them taking anything from my account. I don't have to worry about an overdraft fee here. I don't have to worry about overdraft protection. I don't have to worry about whether this is free. I know what I'm paying; it's the same every time I come here — and maybe that's something banks should look into. I have an extreme distrust and, I guess, disdain for banks, because so many of them have done me and my money wrong.
Walker was recently laid off from a doctor's office. He uses services from places like ACE Cash Express to cash unemployment checks. Walker pays bit less than $5 each time he gets an unemployment check. On the contrary, if he had used a traditional checking account, there'd be no fee at all!

Like Walker, most people who were polled in the survey said that they continued to use these services simply because they were easy and convenient.

According to the 2009 FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households [2], an estimated 21.7% of black households, 19.3% of Hispanic households, and 15.6% of American Indian/Alaskan households are unbanked. The proportion of unbanked and underbanked households varies across different regions of the country, with the highest incidence in the Southern Region. In fact, nearly 20% of all U.S. households earning $30,000 or less per year did not have a bank account. The survey also found that almost a quarter of all households headed by someone who didn't finish high school were considered "unbanked" [1].


In an effort to aid consumers migrate away from such expensive options, the FDIC has enacted a number of initiatives including a short-term loan pilot program it launched in February 2008 [2]. A select group of banks who are a part of FDIC's program, have agreed to offer short-term loans of up to $2,500 to low-income Americans. In fact, FDIC's recent survey was yet another effort to expand consumers' access to basic financial services. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement:
By better understanding the households that make up this group, who they are and their reasons for being unbanked or underbanked, we will be better positioned to help them take that first step.
However, the banking community so far have not shown much interest in reaching this segment of Americans. According to the survey's poll, less than 20 percent of banks said reaching out to these communities was one of their priorities.

What are your views about Americans who are living without bank accounts? Is their choice of paying substantial fees for their money transactions a justified decision when they could have had free checking accounts? Can this situation be improved by educating Americans about personal finance right from middle or high school?

We are looking forward towards your views and opinions. Kindly leave a comment with your thoughts.

Reference(s):
[1]. Ellis, David, CNN Money: 17 million Americans have no bank account

[2]. FDIC: National Survey of Banks' Efforts to Serve the Unbanked and Underbanked
 

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12/22 FinanceProfessor.com

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In IPO Market, Issuers Court Long-Term Buyers - WSJ.com
December 21, 2009 at 11:17 am

The WSJ provides more evidence that investors are not the same.In IPO Market, Issuers Court Long-Term Buyers - WSJ.com: "Long-only buyers—those who tend to hold the stock rather than flip it on the first day—have always been critical participants in successful new issues. Mr. Fox added that issuers 'focus less on allocations when every deal is doing well than when they do in a more
 

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12/21 FinanceProfessor.com

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French plan to force gender equality on boardrooms | World news | The Guardian
December 20, 2009 at 10:22 am

French plan to force gender equality on boardrooms | World news | The Guardian: "In a bill submitted to the French parliament this week, all companies listed on the Paris stock exchange would have to ensure female employees made up 50% of their board members by 2015. If passed, a gradual implementation of the law would see businesses obliged to have women in 20% of board seats within 18 months,

Job growth predicted in financial regulation - washingtonpost.com
December 20, 2009 at 9:58 am

Note: if you are surprised even a little at this, shame on you.Job growth predicted in financial regulation - washingtonpost.com: "Financial examiners and compliance officers are expected to be two of the 30 fastest-growing U.S. occupations over the next 10 years, according to a Labor Department report released last week."
 

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12/20 Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Cereal ... It's What's For Dinner
December 19, 2009 at 6:40 pm

Move over beef, for a small but growing number of consumers, it's Cereal For Dinner.
Cereal for dinner? It's a tough reality for some cash-strapped people.

Rising popularity of cereal among those looking for a cheap meal combined with plunging ingredient costs to boost the second-quarter profit of Cheerios maker General Mills Inc. 50 percent.

The increase is a sign of the economic stress still facing families amid high unemployment who want to cut spending and save time, but don't want to rely on fast food. Food banks are seeing rising demand for cereal as people try to find a nutritious meal that costs as little as possible. That's blurring lines between traditional meals.

Kellie Hotz and her husband, Jeff, eat cereal for dinner three times a week as they struggle to stretch their budgets and care for a toddler. Hotz said cereal is less expensive than fast food, so she keeps a dozen boxes on hand. "It's the fastest, easiest and at least somewhat half-nutritious thing to do during the weekdays," said Hotz, 29, of Arlington Heights, Ill.

Breakfast foods such as eggs are popular now all times of the day because they're quick, nutritious and inexpensive, said Christopher Shanahan, a research analyst with Frost & Sullivan. "The lines of when to eat breakfast, when to eat dinner, when to eat lunch have been slightly blurring," he said.

Food banks across the country are clamoring for cereal to hand out to families, who are increasingly seeking out food assistance.

Cereal is the top priority for Gary Knuth, who coordinates food donations and purchases for the Northern Illinois Food Bank. On Thursday, he put in a bid for a truckload of Shredded Wheat in Iowa. "You can give one box to a family and feed a number of people," he said. "It goes a long way, and it fills a lot of bellies with good stuff."
Bacon, The Recessionary Version Of The Truffle

Justin Rohrlich writing for Minyanville expresses his thoughts about What Our Bacon Intake Says About the Economy.
Stop the presses, folks -- your world is about to be rocked.

Take a look at this headline from Scott Hume's BurgerBusiness.com: "Data Confirm Sharp Increase in Bacon on Burgers and More."

Yes, it's true. A study by venerable Chicago research firm Mintel, commissioned by BurgerBusiness.com, shows that "menu items of all types that include bacon are up 26.5%" since 2005.

But the gripping statistics don't stop there.

The report goes on to inform us that "the number of bacon-topped burgers at all 580 restaurants in its Menu Insights database soared from 424 in 2005 to 576 in 2009, a 35.8% increase."

Houston fund manager and Minyanville professor Ryan Krueger thinks people are drawn to bacon right now because, in his words, it's a "recessionary version of the truffle."

Brian Dimarco, former account director for Burger King (BKC) at now-defunct advertising agency DMB&B, says, "Bacon is the ultimate comfort food. In times of stress and economic trouble, eating bacon is like being swaddled in comforting fat."

Author Sarah Katherine Lewis has a different take. She wrote, "Bacon is the cocaine of the '00s, a visible sign of decadent rebellion."

Elin Roberts, science communications manager at the Centre for Life education center in Newcastle, England, told the Telegraph newspaper that "The smell of sizzling bacon in a pan is enough to tempt even the staunchest of vegetarians. There's something deeper going on inside. It's not just the idea of a tasty snack. There is some complex chemistry going on."

That's why bacon's not going away anytime soon. And it's never going away for this gal, unless she's got one hell of a laser surgeon:

What Gives Meat Its Flavor?

The accidental Scientist is pondering the question What Gives Meat Its Flavor? The answer is found in a link Justin Rohrlich cited on the Maillard Reaction.

Bacon, Cereal, Recessions

Let's tie this together. Bacon is what you buy to satisfy your cravings when you want to be "swaddled in comforting fat". In other words, a significant portion of the increased bacon burger buying reflects increased denial about the economic problems at hand.

On the other hand, cereal is what one eats when reality finally sets in and people realize they cannot afford anything else.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Shoppers Snowed In On "Super Saturday" - Is That A Good Thing?
December 19, 2009 at 3:43 pm

Blizzard conditions have closed roads and stranded passengers all along the I-95 East coast corridor. Canceled flights, and the costs of snow removal and salting are not good things. Moreover, retailers will be blaming blizzard condition for poor last minute sales.

Bloomberg: Major Snowstorm Threatens Blizzard for U.S. Northeast
A major snowstorm dumped a foot of snow on Washington D.C. and threatened blizzard conditions throughout the northeast U.S. on the last travel and shopping weekend before the Christmas holiday.

The accumulation was forecast to reach as much as two feet in the Washington area and 15 inches in New York City. Winter storm and blizzard warnings and watches extend from Georgia to Massachusetts.

Both Reagan National Airport and Dulles International Airport were open, but most airlines had canceled flights today.
Reuters: Storm threatens retailers' last holiday push
Retailers are counting on time-crunched shoppers to swarm stores on "Super Saturday," but a heavy winter storm threatened to strand them at home on the final weekend before Christmas.

"The one thing a retailer doesn't want is a major snowstorm on the Saturday before Christmas," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the NPD Group. "This is definitely not the Christmas gift any retailer would ever ask for."

Severe weather could derail sales on Saturday at retailers with a large presence in cities from New York to Washington D.C., including Bon-Ton Stores, Saks Inc, Macy's Inc and American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

Holiday sales forecasts have narrowed over the course of the shopping season to a range of down 1 percent to up 1 percent from 2008, when sales fell for the first time since the National Retail Federation started tracking the data.

"We believe retail sales will likely suffer as the sales lost during what historically has been the busiest weekend of the year will not be recovered. You can't make up for lost days!" Stifel Nicolaus analyst Richard Jaffe said in a Friday note.
AccuWeather: Paralyzing Snow, Drifting, as Nor`easter Rips the East Overnight
Updated: Saturday, December 19, 2009 2:46 PM



Blizzard conditions with 1 to locally 2 foot snowfalls and winds gusting 40 to 60 mph will spread along the direct path of the storm from southeastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England. Essentially, this would be from Baltimore to Boston.

Worst of the storm will wind down this evening from New Jersey on west, but will rage on through the wee hours of Sunday on Long England and in southern New England.

Travel on interstate highways I-76, I-80, and I-95, not to mention countless local streets and highways, will be difficult and dangerous, even impossible.

Air travels will continue to take a major hit with flight cancellations through Eastern airports likely to number in the hundreds thanks to poor visibility and snow-clogged runways. Knock-on effects will be felt nationwide and beyond.

This storm already has a history of monstrous snowfalls. Amounts to 30 inches have buried West Virginia's Potomac Highlands with two-feet burying in between Charlottesville, Virginia, and Beckley, West Virginia.
Every dime shoppers do not spend is economically a good thing as people need to stop spending money they do not have on things they do not need. However, assuming spending is indeed reduced, it would have been far better if the inducement was something other than an economically wasteful blizzard.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Seven Banks Fail, 140 YTD total, Sheila Bair "prepared to handle an ever-larger number of bank failures next year"
December 19, 2009 at 12:57 am

A total of 140 banks have failed year to date and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair is adding staff, prepared for even more failures next year.

Please consider Seven U.S. Banks Are Seized, Raising Year's Failure Toll to 140
Seven U.S. banks were seized by regulators today, bringing this year's total of failed lenders to 140 as financial companies are tested by the recession and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. anticipates more shutdowns.

Banks with $14.4 billion in total assets were closed in six U.S. states, the FDIC said in statements on its Web site. The agency is overseeing the dissolution of banks at the fastest pace in 17 years.

Earlier this week, the FDIC boosted its 2010 budget by 56 percent to $4 billion to manage further shutdowns. The total budget will increase from $2.6 billion and the set-aside for bank failures doubles to $2.5 billion over this year, according to a proposal approved by the FDIC board. The agency staff will increase to 8,653 next year from 7,010 this year.

The budget "will ensure that we are prepared to handle an ever-larger number of bank failures next year, if that becomes necessary," FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement. Today's bank closings will cost the agency about $1.8 billion, according to the FDIC statements.

U.S. lenders are buckling under the weight of loans tied to commercial real estate, which is plummeting in value. Prices have dropped 43 percent from their peak in October 2007, Moody's Investors Service said last month.
Sheila Bair, tooting Obama's horn, complains banks aren't lending enough.

Looking for a reason banks aren't lending? Here is one reason in pictorial form.

Assets at Banks whose ALLL exceeds their Nonperforming Loans



The above chart courtesy of the St. Louis Fed.

Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings (and capitalization ratios) are wildly over-stated.

Here is an interesting note from the Fed. "For each size category, the sum of all assets held by banks where this ratio is greater than one is divided by the sum all assets held by banks in the class."

In other words, banks whose allowances are negative are excluded from the chart.

There are many more reasons banks are not lending including: rising unemployment, rising taxes, uncertainty over health care costs, proposed cap-and-trade costs, increasing consumer frugality, rampant overcapacity, and boomer demographics.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
 

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12/20 Malaysia-Finance Blogspot

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CGI With A Soul, Avatar Stuns the Eye, Seduces the Heart
December 19, 2009 at 9:40 pm


avatar still 2

It takes a lot for me to really like CGI ladened movies. I have to qualify that I am one of the few who hated the Star Wars numer-olgy series. I like animation cause it does not pretend to be anything but cartoons even with better CGI. I tolerate the Transformers cause its action, but it has no soul. I am not a keen sci-fi fan as well, except when it has a good heart, like Close Encounters of The Third Kind and Contact. I loved The Matrix series, it is SF, CGI and a very deep story to tell. Hence after all the hullabaloo over the $230m James Cameron spent on the movie Avatar, and taking more than a decade to make, I seriously wanted him to succeed since it obviously is a work of passion as he is filthy rich already from Titanic.

Cameron made sure the story is there first and foremost, and its a great story. Any great movie story teller, like Spielberg will know that you want the audience to identofy and empathise with the main characters, and Cameron does that very well. Both the real world and the world of Pandora moved in and out brilliantly. The CGI was outstanding, the details, the wings flapping, surrounding sounds and every yips and shrieks and rustle of leaves were there. The alien world was well thought out, and I especially loved the long ponytail which acts as a USB port of sorts - what a wonderful concept.

avataor1218.JPG

The movie is grand and ambitious and yet it touches on issues of mother nature, devastation, displacement, culture, belief systems, ... and yet making obvious statements such as "if we want what they have, they become our enemy". In that sense it is also a movie for our times, its a "green" movie in many ways. It more than entertain like a normal movie, the visuals leave you in awe... I can't wait to see in again in 3D and maybe even IMAX.


James Cameron has turned one man's dream of the movies into a trippy joy ride about the end of life -- our moviegoing life included -- as we know it.

-- Manohla Dargis, New York Times

Avatar is an entertainment to be not just seen but absorbed on a molecular level; it's as close to a full-body experience as we'll get until they invent the holo-suits. Cameron aims for sheer wonderment, and he delivers.

-- Ty Burr, Boston Globe

For all the grandeur and technical virtuosity of the mythical 3-D universe Cameron labored for years to perfect, his characters are one-dimensional, rarely saying anything unexpected. But for much of the movie, that hardly matters.

-- Claudia Puig, USA Today

James Cameron's Avatar is the most beautiful film I've seen in years.

-- David Denby, New Yorker

It extends the possibilities of what movies can do. Cameron's talent may just be as big as his dreams.

-- Peter Travers, Rolling Stone


CGI With A Heart, Avatar Stuns the Eye, Seduces the Heart
December 19, 2009 at 1:37 pm


avatar still 2

It takes a lot for me to really like CGI ladened movies. I have to qualify that I am one of the few who hated the Star Wars numer-olgy series. I like animation cause it does not pretend to be anything but cartoons even with better CGI. I tolerate the Transformers cause its action, but it has no soul. I am not a keen sci-fi fan as well, except when it has a good heart, like Close Encounters of The Third Kind and Contact. I loved The Matrix series, it is SF, CGI and a very deep story to tell. Hence after all the hullabaloo over the $230m James Cameron spent on the movie Avatar, and taking more than a decade to make, I seriously wanted him to succeed since it obviously is a work of passion as he is filthy rich already from Titanic.

Cameron made sure the story is there first and foremost, and its a great story. Any great movie story teller, like Spielberg will know that you want the audience to identofy and empathise with the main characters, and Cameron does that very well. Both the real world and the world of Pandora moved in and out brilliantly. The CGI was outstanding, the details, the wings flapping, surrounding sounds and every yips and shrieks and rustle of leaves were there. The alien world was well thought out, and I especially loved the long ponytail which acts as a USB port of sorts - what a wonderful concept.

avataor1218.JPG

The movie is grand and ambitious and yet it touches on issues of mother nature, devastation, displacement, culture, belief systems, ... and yet making obvious statements such as "if we want what they have, they become our enemy". In that sense it is also a movie for our times, its a "green" movie in many ways. It more than entertain like a normal movie, the visuals leave you in awe... I can't wait to see in again in 3D and maybe even IMAX.


James Cameron has turned one man's dream of the movies into a trippy joy ride about the end of life -- our moviegoing life included -- as we know it.

-- Manohla Dargis, New York Times

Avatar is an entertainment to be not just seen but absorbed on a molecular level; it's as close to a full-body experience as we'll get until they invent the holo-suits. Cameron aims for sheer wonderment, and he delivers.

-- Ty Burr, Boston Globe

For all the grandeur and technical virtuosity of the mythical 3-D universe Cameron labored for years to perfect, his characters are one-dimensional, rarely saying anything unexpected. But for much of the movie, that hardly matters.

-- Claudia Puig, USA Today

James Cameron's Avatar is the most beautiful film I've seen in years.

-- David Denby, New Yorker

It extends the possibilities of what movies can do. Cameron's talent may just be as big as his dreams.

-- Peter Travers, Rolling Stone

 

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12/20 24/7 Wall St.

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Can AT&& and Verizon Keep Raising Dividends Indefinitely? (T, VZ)
December 19, 2009 at 11:25 am


AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) has done what we expected would occur at some point soon.  Despite some bad company public relations Friday over its network, the company raised its quarterly dividend.  The old $0.41 quarterly payout was raised by 2.6% to $0.42 per quarter.  With a share price of $27.32, this comes to a yield of just over 6.1% for its annualized dividend.  What we wanted to see, same as when we covered the same sort of dividend hike at Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), is if AT&T and Verizon both have more room to raise their dividends in 2010 as well.

So is the AT&T dividend hike possible all over again in 2010?  For starters, this was actually the 26th consecutive year that A&T has juiced its common stock dividend higher according to the company.  That is a pretty solid track record and pretty good forecasting tool for those who follow patterns.  Presumably at the dawn of humanity, when the sun rose from the same direction after about 20 days in a row it probably became assumed that it would continue that way.

As far as the AT&T earnings coverage, this seems adequate for another hike in 2010 if AT&T meets its earnings targets.  Thomson Reuters has 2010 earnings targets at $2.24 EPS, up from $2.12 EPS for 2009.  This new higher dividend of $0.42 comes to about $1.68 per share paid out of that earnings cash flow.  If AT&T were to boost its dividend again by a penny, then at a $1.72 payout per year it still has plenty of dividend coverage considering that AT&T probably doesn’t billions and billion to grow at this point.

As far as Verizon is concerned, its dividend hike in recent months to $0.475 per quarter comes to a payout of $1.90 annually.  Its 2010 earnings estimate from Thomson Reuters was listed as $2.64 EPS on the day it was announced.  Today that estimate for 2010 is $2.50 EPS.  That isn’t   The new dividend rate was based on a $30.10 share price at the time, giving it a 6.3% yield at the time.  Based on a $32.80 price today, Verizon’s dividend yield for new share buyers is 5.8%.

The dividend coverage on AT&T is about 1.3-times and Verizon is currently about 1.3-times even after the gain and after the earnings estimates came down. In short, these are both in-line.

Everyone keeps thinking about telecom being at risk because the old copper wires into the homes and businesses are slowly going away.  That isn’t the only game they have anymore, even if these businesses are no longer high-growth operations of the past.  Dividend hikes of this sort do not sound extreme.  In fact, they are not extreme.  But this is continued evidence of how some companies can keep growing their dividends year in and year out.  Recession or not.

JON C. OGG

Posted in Dividend, Telecom Tagged: T, VZ
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Oil Prices May Spike Monday, Nigeria Pipeline Attacked (CVX)(RDA.A)
December 19, 2009 at 10:46 am

Nigerian rebels have probably attacked pipeline installations near facilties operating by Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDA.A). This could cause the price of crude to rise at the end of the holiday. AP reports that “The violence has cut Nigeria’s oil production by about a million barrels a day, allowing Angola to surge ahead as Africa’s top [...]

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Joining GM, Ford Will Make Early Debt Repayments
December 19, 2009 at 7:56 am


Light vehicles sales in the US do not seem to be improving much. The market for 2009 will probably produce about 10.5 million sales well down from over 16 million four years ago. Monthly comparisons from 2008 are still running negative for most car companies.

It is a surprise that GM has started paying the federal government back the loans it received early this year. It sent the US Treasury $1 billion on December 18 and another $192 million went to the Canadian government. GM management expects to be able to pay off its entire $6.7 billion obligation to the two governments by June.

Ford (NYSE:F) said it would also begin to pay bondholders early.

Ford borrowed $23 billion less than two years ago to prepare for a restructuring that included firing tens of thousands of workers and retooling its plants. CEO Alan Mulally mortgaged all the company’s assets to get the capital. Ford’s total debt rose to $27 billion. The firm says it has paid $10 billion of that back this year. Ford would like to pay back most of the balance by the end of 2011. The company expects to be profitable that year.

The wonder of the Ford and GM announcements is where the money is coming from. In GM’s case, its sales in  China are booming. Units shipped in China in November by GM were large than the US number. But, Ford does not have significant operations in the world’s most populous nation.

The answer to the question of where the cash flow is coming from to bring down debt may be in the massive cost cuts that each of The  Big Three made in 2008 and early 2009. The breakeven point against total sales for the car firms may now be so low that Detroit can make money on even the most modest revenue.

Detroit will never return to the sales levels of 2003 through 2005, but Ford, GM, and Chrysler are likely to survive. A lot of experts bet against that just a year ago.

Douglas A. McIntrye

Posted in Autos Tagged: F
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